A Hoge in One: 2008-09 Big Ten Basketball Preview

One of my favorite things to do when a season ends is to immediately look at next season. It's kind of like when the season finale of your favorite show comes to an end with an incredible cliff hanger and you just wish some guy out there could release the next episode so you can see what happens next.

Well, at the end of the college football and basketball seasons, I try to be that guy.

Last April I looked into my crystal ball at the 2008-'09 Big Ten basketball season. Turns out, I wasn't that far off.

My Big Ten forecast April 2, 2008:

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan State
4. Ohio State
5. Minnesota
6. Illinois
7. Penn State
8. Michigan
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Indiana

Blue Ribbon's forecast that was published this month:

1. Purdue
2. Michigan State
3. Wisconsin
4. Ohio State
5. Minnesota
6. Penn State
7. Michigan
8. Illinois
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Indiana

So at least Blue Ribbon thinks I know something about Big Ten basketball after covering the Wisconsin Badgers for three years. Just wait until Penn State wins the Big Ten, Northwestern wins the conference tournament and Michigan reaches the Final Four.

Okay, none of that is really going to happen, but here's what might happen (in the order of my official Big Ten predictions with last season's records):

1. Purdue - 25-9, 15-3 (2nd)

The Boilermakers return all five starters and add a true point guard in freshman Lewis Jackson. Keaton Grant will start at the point early on, but don't be surprised if Matt Painter goes to Jackson sooner or later. Jackson is the fastest player on the team and not having a true point guard last season is what held Purdue back.

If that's the case, Grant becomes a 6th man who averaged 11. 2 points per game last season. Then you have the reigning defensive player of the year, Chris Kramer, next to the team's best scorer, E'Twaun Moore, and we haven't even gotten to the pre-season Big Ten Player of the Year, Robbie Hummel.

Who has the most raw athletic talent on the team? That would be center JaJuan Johnson who is set to take the conference by storm after developing his freshman year with 16 minutes a game.

The Boilers also have Nemanja Calasan, who sounds like he should be a character in Jumanji, but he is actually a steady post player who can step outside and be dangerous from the perimeter.

And you wonder why Scott Martin transfered to Notre Dame? Martin is a very good player, but there just wasn't a spot on this team for him. Matt Painter proved last season that there is such a thing as too good of a recruiting class.

The ending: NCAA Elite Eight

2. Michigan State - 27-9, 12-6 (4th)

I read somewhere that Tom Izzo's second team would rank in the top six of the Big Ten. Deep the Spartans are, but polished they are not.

The Spartans underachieved last year in part because senior Drew Neitzel was very inconsistent in an awkward year where he played shooting guard but knew he would have to play the point at the next level. Is it possible that his departure will actually help MSU?

Neitzel never jelled well with point guard Kalin Lucas so look for the sophomore to take even greater strides this season after averaging 10. 3 ppg as a freshman. The doors are also open for sophomores Chris Allen and Durrell Summers who figure to enter the starting lineup. Both came on strong at the end of last season.

Raymar Morgan averaged 14 ppg last season but he virtually disappeared at the end of the season as MSU went 6-4 in its last 10 games. Consistency from Morgan will be the key to a successful season for Izzo's squad.

Watch out for freshmen Delvon Roe and Korie Lucious. Both are highly regarded prospects who figure to play immediately.

The Ending: NCAA Elite Eight

3. Wisconsin 31-5, 16-2 (1st)

Part of me wants to put the Badgers ahead of Michigan State because we all know that Bo owns Izzo. But the reality of last season's record 31 wins is that the Big Ten was down. Michigan State tanked, Indiana experienced one of the most tumultuous in-season coaching scandals ever, and while Purdue was a surprise and beat Wisconsin twice, their inexperience doomed them in big games late.

These Badgers have the marking of another successful Bo Ryan team that will win at least 25 games, maybe win the Big Ten Tournament and lose in the Sweet 16. They will be well coached as always, play great defense and find enough scoring to win big games.

Still, I argue that the losses of Brian Butch and Michael Flowers are bigger than the losses of Kammron Taylor and Alando Tucker the year before. Everyone is replaceable in Ryan's system, but it's actually harder to replace great defenders (Flowers) and polished big men (Butch) than scoring in the swing offense.

Ryan recruits size with the hopes that he can develop their feet and post-skills. Sometimes it works (Mike Wilkinson), sometimes it takes a while (Butch), and sometimes it doesn't work at all (sophomore J.P. Gavinski). The bottom line is that this year he has a ton of these guys in the front court, but they are young and have to develop in a hurry.

Butch was never a great defender, but he rebounded and could score. Right now, sophomore Jon Leuer has the scoring ability to take over Butch's offense, but sophomore Keaton Nankivil actually has the inside track at starting because he's a better defender and rebounder.

Meanwhile, Trevon Hughes will take over Flowers' spot as the lock-down defender, while Jason Bohannon will have to improve his defense in a hurry if he wants the chance to average double-figures. You might see sets with freshman Jordan Taylor at the point (he' proving early that he can play defense) with Hughes at the 2-guard (maximizing his scoring potential) and Bohannon still on the floor to get open from outside.

Overall, the Badgers will find a way to replace Flowers' defense and Butch's rebounding and scoring as a team, much like they used balanced scoring a year ago to make up for the absence of Tucker and Taylor. The problem is that they are still looking to replace that scoring. This team is still very good, but they don't have the weak conference to capitalize on this season.

One last prediction: This recruiting class, which you won't see much of this season, will end up being Bo Ryan's best at Wisconsin. Ryan did something unconventional by moving around scholarships so he could add Ryan Evans late. The guy always knows what he's doing so watch out for this group of freshmen.

The Ending: NCAA Sweet 16

4. Ohio State - 24-13, 10-8 (5th)

Thad Matta once again brings in a one-and-done lottery pick in B.J. Mullens, and he's once again going to learn that great recruiting classes only work if they stay awhile, unless of course you bring in the best recruiting class of all- time and go to the NCAA Championship game like he did in 2007. But tandems like Mike Conley and Greg Oden don't come along that often, and while Mullens should be better than Kosta Koufos, there aren't enough pieces around the 7'1 freshman to win the conference.

The Ending: NCAA 2nd Round

5. Minnesota - 20-14, 8-10

Tubby Smith made an early statement with this team last season and they only figure to improve with a good recruiting class coming in. The Gophers have solid players in Lawrence Westbrook, Al Nolen, Blake Hoffarber and Damien Johnson, but now it's time to bring in some real talent like Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson. Both are sons of NBA greats and both figure to stabilize a front court that will give Westbrook a ton of options.

The Ending: NCAA 2nd Round

6- Michigan - 10-22, 5-13

Michigan's biggest problem last season was that Manny Harris was the whole team. Things are different this season, as the sophomore will get some help from transfer Laval Lucas-Perry. But Harris is the real deal that can lead this team to a surprise season. I think he has the talent to be an NBA lottery pick down the road. Zach Gibson figures to emerge as a dependable center.

The Ending: NIT Final Four

7- Penn State - 15-16, 7-11

A lot of fans in Happy Valley keep asking themselves, "What if Geary Claxton didn't tear his ACL?" It's a good question. I called for a surprise NCAA Tournament berth as early as April 2007 and it might have happened if Claxton and Jamelle Cornley had stayed healthy. Cornley is back and he has a solid group of players around him. Talor Battle had a great freshman season and should be even better as a sophomore. If Stanley Pringle can be more consistent and sophomore David Jackson can become a double-digit scorer, then this might be the year that the Nittany Lions surprise.

The Ending: NCAA 1st Round

8. Northwestern - 8-22, 1-17

Maybe I'm going too far out on a limb with this one, but I think the Kitties can actually turn into Cats and make the NIT. Northwestern boasts one of the conference's top scorers in Kevin Coble, the Big Ten's best 3-point shooter in Craig Moore and a top point guard in Michael "Juice" Thompson. And you say, "Yeah, they had all that last year and won one Big Ten game." The difference this season is that Bill Carmody brought in some rebounding (it's about time). Freshman Kyle Rowley and Luka Mirkovic are both 7-footers who can score and rebound. If this team had ANY size last season they could have done some damage. That help is there this year. That puts Carmody directly on the hot seat, though. It's win or go home for 9th-year head coach.

The Ending: NIT 2nd Round

9. Illinois - 16-19, 5-13

The outlook of the Illini's season changed when Jamar Smith once again damaged the program with another alcohol related incident in the off-season and was dismissed from the team. That leaves Bruce Weber with essentially the same team as last year except for the addition of Alex Legion, a Kentucky transfer who won't be able to play until Christmas. Demetri McCamey will improve on a stellar freshman season, but he still has Trent Meacham and Chester Frazier in the backcourt with him. Unless Legion can miraculously score 20 points per game, Weber will have to wait for his impressive 2009 recruiting class to come next season.

The Ending: Second straight season with no post-season berth.

10. Iowa - 13-19, 6-12

Todd Lickliter hasn't done much on the recruiting trail yet and he managed to lose his best player, Tony Freeman, who transfered to Southern Illinois after some run-ins with the coaching staff. There are some nice players here, namely Cyrus Tate, but there isn't much.

The Ending: No post-season.

11. Indiana - 25-8, 14-4

Oh, how things can change in a year. The only good thing that IU did in the past 10 months is hire a good coach who knew that the best thing to do was to clean house. Tom Crean comes in with nothing after dismissing almost the whole team, but he has a great attitude and a tremendous connection to the Chicago recruiting area. With only two players returning from last year's team, Kyle Finkelmeier and Kyle Taber, Crean gets a pass on this season. But it won't be long before the Hoosiers make a comeback.

The Ending: No post-season.